CLARITY Act Odds Skyrocket! Solana Policy Institute INTERVIEW
The political temperature in Washington has risen sharply around crypto legislation, and nowhere is that more evident than in the rapidly shifting odds surrounding the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act — commonly referred to simply as the Clarity Act. As of this week, prediction markets on Polymarket have seen the probability of the bill's passage surge dramatically, jumping from roughly 55% last week to 76% in the span of just 24 hours. That kind of rapid movement in a prediction market typically signals that something significant is happening behind closed doors — and based on conversations with insiders, that appears to be exactly the case.
At the heart of the legislative standoff is a single, contentious issue: whether stablecoin holders should be permitted to earn yield or rewards on their holdings. The banking industry has pushed back forcefully against this provision, viewing any form of interest-bearing stablecoin as a direct competitive threat to traditional deposit accounts. Ohio Senator Bernie Moreno, speaking at the recent World Liberty Finance conference alongside Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, was candid in his frustration, suggesting that the banking sector's resistance is less about sound policy and more about protecting an incumbent business model. Moreno has expressed optimism that a deal can be reached, tentatively pointing to April as a realistic target for getting the bill to President Trump's desk — though many observers believe the White House is pushing for a resolution even sooner, with a reported March 1st deadline for at least reaching a framework on the yield and rewards dispute.
Miller White House Lavine, head of the Solana Policy Institute, offered a frank assessment of the current state of play. According to Lavine, the most recent position document submitted by the banks at a White House meeting actually moved further away from compromise rather than toward it — effectively seeking a prohibition on any direct or indirect stablecoin rewards of any kind to any party. That hardline stance has been met with significant pushback from the crypto industry and, more critically, from the White House itself. The administration, led in part by policy advisor Patrick Witt, has taken an active convening role, bringing both sides to the table in an attempt to broker a deal. Lavine suggested that the White House is likely to ultimately hand down a compromise that neither side fully embraces — and that this may be the most realistic path to resolution.
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Should the stablecoin yield debate be resolved, Lavine characterized it as a "starting gun" — or more precisely, a closing gun — for the broader market structure effort embedded in the Clarity Act. The yield issue has, in his words, "metastasized" into a blocking problem that has held up the rest of a bill that enjoys broad support in principle. If that logjam breaks, the expectation among insiders is that the Clarity Act will move swiftly, driven by collective exhaustion and a shared desire not to revisit this kind of drawn-out fight. A more cynical read is that the resolution of the yield issue may also explain the sudden spike in Polymarket odds — that a deal has quietly been reached or is imminent, even if it has not yet been publicly announced.
The conversation also touched on a range of adjacent issues that will shape the future of crypto and decentralized finance in the U.S. On the question of synthetic stocks and pre-IPO securities platforms — such as those recently launched by Robinhood — Lavine expressed confidence that the SEC under Chairman Paul Atkins, along with Commissioners Peirce and Uyeda, will be broadly supportive of expanded retail access to early-stage investment opportunities. He noted that more capital has been raised through private exempt offerings than public IPOs in recent years, a trend the current commission views as a product of overregulation that has locked out ordinary investors. Separately, on the prediction markets front, CFTC Chairman Brian Quintenz has moved aggressively to assert federal jurisdiction over these contracts, filing a brief in the Ninth Circuit defending the CFTC's authority — a move Lavine described as "guns blazing" in the world of administrative law, and one he expects may ultimately reach the Supreme Court given the volume of state-level litigation.
Looking ahead, the stakes for the broader crypto ecosystem — and for Solana in particular, which has emerged as a central chain for DeFi activity, synthetic equities, and prediction markets — are substantial. Lavine noted that the banking industry's sudden and intense engagement with crypto legislation is itself a form of validation: institutions that spent years dismissing blockchain technology as irrelevant are now treating it as an existential competitive threat. Whether or not the Clarity Act crosses the finish line in the coming weeks, it has already clarified one thing — the battle between traditional finance and decentralized systems is no longer theoretical. It is playing out in congressional hearing rooms, White House meetings, and federal courthouses in real time.
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